Price of global the sources of energy continues to glide considerably last week, among them price of fiducial WTI crude falls the bottom before defeating a year. Germany overcomes Sa Sizhong qualitative oil (WTI) crude price last week 5 (on October 10, 2008) receive a reply 77.7 dollars / bucket, far under the 81.32 dollars that the corresponding period recorded last year / bucket level. Although last week closing quotation price already relatively the 145.31 dollars that achieved on July 3 this year / bucket history perch glides 47% , but still outclass 10 years ago on November 25, 1998, namely epicycle is super rise periodic located history is the most low-level in the begining 10.77 dollars / bucket. However, levels of afore-mentioned new oil price already made a person oppugn, a lot of analysts had been adjusted earlier before it is about oil price general inside metaphase return 100 dollars / of bucket level forecast.
Because global stock market lasts to glide and fluctuate considerably,oil price glides is, and the dollar sparks strong undersell of energy market all fronts.
Analyst of Alaron Trading vice-president, high-quality market Phil · Flynn (Phil Flynn) forecast crude price to will be reached before the end of the year drop to during 2009 50 to 67 dollars / bucket interval, and the cycle of ” of “ be issued to lower levels of commodity market whole will last 5 to 10 years.
Although a few analysts say oil price may drop to 50 dollars / bucket level, international Monetary Fund (IMF) express however at the beginning of last week, predict oil price will maintain 2009 in 100 dollars / bucket left and right sides. IMF says, although global economy appears great glide, this organization still makes afore-mentioned forecasting, but this organization also is warned say, supply interrupt farther aggravate or economic growth difference to make at anticipating a possibility foreground happening changes.
This organization warning says, the market may fluctuate continuously, “ makes response quickly to the understanding change of trend of supply and demand. ” this organization says, show according to data of period power market, the prospective value interval that market participator “ operates is put in unusually tall uncertainty, to the end of 2008 before this paragraph during the eventuate that falls in 90% confidence interval 60 dollars / the bucket comes 165 dollars / bucket. ”
IMF says: &Ldquo; oil price may continue to glide, make the profit of certain stability for global economy, but this kind of circumstance general goes probably soft with global demand relevant, and rather than offers meet an emergency benignly to move. ” on the other hand, IMF says: &Ldquo; produces can finite circumstance to fall in the rest, supply further interrupt a likelihood to push high oil price again, your consumer purchasing power continues press press, the country is imported in oil especially such. ”
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