Last week, be in what the United States points to big 3 to steep fall drive, the money market of world each country appears infrequent avalanche prices, oil price is to fly more flow to fall continuously, zhou Wu lowest amounts to 77.09 dollars / bucket, slump in price of futures of the two crude oil inside week 27.28 dollars, drop panel height is amounted to 27.4% .
Below the collective influence that drops greatly in financial seismic sea wave and crude oil futures, global commodity market steeps fall in succession. Metal, produce (000061, ) appeared like the avalanche prices. The author thinks, resonance of the following element brings about oil price to appear steep fall.
It is the panicky mood that assault of American finance storm causes. Last week, american Dow-jones Average drops 1874.19 a little bit (or 18.15% ) , below the influence of American banking crisis, panicky mood grow like a weed. Fluidity inadequacy is behaved very apparently in the market, dollar interest rate goes tall considerably in Libor market, reflective capital is exceeding be in short supply, interest rate of Libor of dollar of 3 lunar period by 9 days 4.75% 4.82% what go up to 10 days. And the index of VIX stability bandwidth that reflects mood of market investor panic goes high considerably, especially last week is alternate more innovation is tall, demonstrative market participator is immersed in exceeding panic and not plan cost ground average can avoid of danger sell option. This index goes high considerably last week, reflected the mood with American stock market and global exceeding and panicky money market just about, bring about commodity index to drop greatly.
The 2nd, bull capital runs away to be hit directly control oil price. CFTC maintains a warehouse the report shows, the nearly 3 capital inside week exit crude option market in great quantities, futures always holds Cang Sanzhou to reduce more than 150 thousand hand, of capital retreat price of crude of be sent on a diplomatic mission to drop considerably. And the report last week shows, fund bull reduces 26987 hands suddenly, at the same time nominal hits a person when he is down, raise 9416 hands, be equal to clean much sheet to reduce 36403 hands, clean much sheet by before the 40093 hands of a week become 3690 hands. If consider second half week steep fall, fund holds a storehouse to had turned into headroom became odd. A large number of capital exit crude option market, hit directly control oil price.
The 3rd, inventory increases considerably, and crude oil demand decreases considerably however. According to association of American energy news (EIA) report, up to became on October 3, crude oil of American home business supplies increase sharply 8.1 million pails reach 302.6 million pails, at present crude oil has been entered seasonal in the cycle that inventory adds. From the point of consumption, demand of crude oil day already was compared the corresponding period reduced more than 1 million pails last year. Arrange of international the sources of energy (IEA) 5 key are low last week petroleum demand growth calculates a value this year 250 thousand pails, reach 440 thousand pails, it is level of 15 years of lowest. IEA still is moved low growth of next year demand is worth 190 thousand pails, go to 690 thousand pails.
Previous12 Next