1, the influence of supply demand relations
Supply demand relations is the prime factor that affects prices of any market of a kind of commodity, fuel oil is not exceptional also. Last as our country economy high-speed develops, our country also grows quickly to the demand of the sources of energy, to 2003 the crop of domestic fuel oil can satisfy the half of domestic demand only, and entrance resource takes the half of country that supplies gross, the increase and decrease that imports an amount is affecting domestic fuel to supply a state oilily greatly, because this fuel that authoritative branch announces is oily,data of imports and exports is a when judge situation of supply and demand main index. Singapore general type spot price (MOPS) the fiducial price that is Singapore fuel oil, also be the fiducial price of oil of fuel of our country entrance, so MOPS and its agio state reflected the cost that imports fuel oil, impact of fat to the fuel of our country price is more immediate.
2, crude price takes the effect of situation
Fuel oil is the downstream product of crude oil, of crude price go situation a be state of influence fuel oily supply and demand main factor, because the price of this fuel oil goes situation and crude oil,existing very strong dependency. In last few years according to be opposite the price goes the research of situation, futures of Comex WTI crude oil and 180CST of Singapore fuel oily spot market are tall between sulfur fuel oil relevant degree be as high as 90% above, WTI shows the United States must overcome Sa Sizhong qualitative crude oil on the west, its futures contract appears on the market in the Comex. The breed of main crude oil futures on international still has IPE, IPE is to point to the North sea Bulunte crude oil, appear on the market in bourse of British international oil. The price trend of WTI and IPE is to judge case of fuel oil price to walk along 2 of situation important basises.
3, petroliferous country especially the produces policy effect of country of OPEC each member
Since 80 time, 2/3 what output of oil of blame OPEC nation holds world oil output about, the last few years drops somewhat, recoverable reserves of Dan Jishi oily the rest is finite, and the manufacturing policy of each country is skimble-scamble also, its are accordingly right the influence of crude price cannot place on a par with OPEC organization. OPEC organizes a country to controlling natural resources of oil of the majority on the world, for common interest, the about crop and oil price agreement that reachs between each member country, can get the support of most country, so this organization is acting the part that cannot replace in international oil market, its produce policy to have major force to crude price.
4, the influence of international and domestic economy
Fuel oil is developing of each country economy important the sources of energy, carry in power industry, petrifaction industry, traffic especially industry, building materials and light industrial industry scope of application is wider and wider, closely related the demand of fuel oil and economic progress. When analysing macroscopical economy, having two index is very important, it is economic increase rate, perhaps saying is GDP increase rate, another is industrial birth increase rate. When economy grows, the demand of fuel oil also can increase, drive pattern of fuel oil price thereby rise, when economic coast, the atrophy of fuel oily demand meets those who make the price drop. Accordingly, the future that should hold and calculates standard of good fuel oil price goes situation, hold macroscopical economy evolving is quite important.
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